Three years of subsidy-driven global expansion are approaching the point of actual output. Industry trackers count several supported projects now installing equipment, with the earliest volume production expected next year.
Notably, the weight of this expansion sits not at the leading edge but on mature process nodes. Demand from automotive electronics, industrial control and consumer devices is relatively steady there, and the investment risk is easier to contain.
The risk of supply arriving together
Precisely because projects are clustered, the industry is watchful about supply arriving at once. One analyst warned that without matching demand growth, mature nodes could see a period of oversupply within two years.
- Focus: mature nodes first, leading edge second
- Timing: earliest volume production next year
- End markets: automotive electronics, industrial control, consumer devices
- Shared bottleneck: process engineering and maintenance staff
Almost every new project names the same constraint: people. Equipment can be bought and lines copied, but experienced process engineers and maintenance teams take years to build.
Clearly written, and the section on the data is more solid than most coverage of this.
I had not thought about it from this angle. It did shift my view a little.
Hope there is a follow-up. These things tend to drop out of view after a few weeks.
I have seen something similar locally, and this matches what I noticed.
I have seen something similar locally, and this matches what I noticed.
Would be better with more specifics on the source of the figures, but otherwise fine.